Government guarantees fuel until May and rules out shortages, but admits price increases after April

The Mozambican government reiterated on Tuesday (31) that the country has enough fuel to meet domestic demand in the coming weeks, ruling out scenarios of immediate shortages and ensuring that there will be no change in prices until May.

The assurance was given by the Secretary of the Treasury and Budget, Amílcar Tivane, at the end of the IX Ordinary Session of the Council of Ministers, where he explained that the national market currently has reserves capable of covering approximately 30 days of consumption. According to the official, new fuel arrivals are also expected between April 14th and 16th, which should further strengthen supply capacity and stabilize the market.

Tivane emphasized that, to ensure these stock levels, the Executive Branch initiated urgent actions that allowed the release of approximately 85,000 metric tons of fuel that had been held at ocean terminals since the beginning of March. The retention was linked to the need for bank guarantees initially valued at $72 million, a figure that was later reduced to $12 million, thus allowing the release of the products and their transfer to national reservoirs.

Furthermore, between March 26 and 30, the country received new fuel shipments, a fact which, according to the official, reinforces the idea that the recent disruptions marked by queues and fears of shortages were unnecessary and did not correspond to the actual availability of the product on the market.

Despite the relatively stable short-term scenario, the Government acknowledges future challenges, particularly regarding the availability of foreign currency to support imports. Tivane stated that the Executive continues to work with the various stakeholders in the sector to guarantee foreign currency for importing and distributing companies, an essential condition for the continuity of supply.

However, the government official warned that after April, there may be a need to revise fuel prices in the domestic market. Any potential increase will be directly linked to the evolution of international oil prices, which remain volatile due to geopolitical and economic factors.

As a mitigating measure, the Government admits to resorting to the Fuel Stabilization Fund, currently valued at around 390 million meticais, equivalent to approximately six million dollars. The objective will be to cushion the impact of any increases, especially to protect the most vulnerable social groups and avoid negative effects on the economy.

Internationally, oil prices registered a slight drop, settling around $100 per barrel, after reaching peaks of $107 in the early hours of the day. The decline is associated with signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, particularly following declarations of openness to ending the conflict by Iran and a less aggressive stance from US President Donald Trump.

This international context could positively influence the cost of future imports, especially if the normalization of ship traffic in the strategic Strait of Hormuz is confirmed, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil flows.

Nevertheless, the Government maintains a cautious stance, acknowledging that the evolution of the international market remains uncertain and that any decision on domestic prices will be made based on economic, financial and social criteria, seeking to balance the sustainability of the sector with the protection of citizens' purchasing power.

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