MAP OF OPPORTUNITIES IN THE CONTEXT OF TERRORISM AND VIOLENT EXTREMISM IN MOZAMBIQUE

Dário Maunze"

"A reflection on opportunities and the new modi operandi of insurgency in areas affected by terrorism." Based on information published in newspapers last week (October 30, 2026), it was learned that the European Union Military Assistance Mission in Mozambique (EUMAM-MOZ) reported that insurgent groups carried out 154 attacks in the previous five months. It was also highlighted that kidnappings increased from 29% of attacks in the first half of the year to 56% in the most recent quarter, being used to demand ransoms and recruit new members. Given this information, an important question remains to be considered. What relationship might exist between the new modus operandi of insurgent groups and the map of economic and social opportunities in communities affected by terrorism? Therefore, when we talk about a map of opportunities, we are referring to the set of possibilities that a society offers people to secure their livelihood, develop skills, and build their life projects. It's not just about existing resources, such as land, markets, schools, or employment, but also about understanding who can access them and under what conditions. It is from this perspective that it is important to reflect on the new ways in which insurgent groups operate, because kidnappings, ransom demands, and extortion raise questions about the economic and social decisions of families. For example, when faced with a payment demand, what alternatives might families consider? Could they dip into their savings, sell some assets, or seek support from relatives? What other projects might be postponed as a result of these decisions? These are possibilities that deserve analysis, without assuming that all families experience the same situations. The recruitment of new members also opens up space for other questions. What circumstances might place certain individuals in situations of pressure or involvement within insurgent groups? What alternatives do they find in their communities? More than anticipating answers, it is important to understand the conditions under which these choices are made or under what conditions decisions are made regarding opportunities. However, there is another dimension that deserves particular attention: the way people begin to view the opportunities available to them. The issue of risk involved in this new dynamic of terrorism can determine how existing opportunities are seized. Because the circumstances in which one lives, the information available, and the perception of the risks of kidnapping, extortion, or even forced recruitment in favor of violent extremism can influence how each person assesses the opportunities around them. A community, for example, may possess land, markets, schools, and natural resources, but the existence of these elements does not, by itself, explain the living conditions of its members. It is necessary to consider the differences between families' experiences, the resources they have available, and the circumstances in which they seek to develop their activities. However, it is important to note that the affected communities should not, therefore, be understood as homogeneous realities. Nevertheless, looking at the map of opportunities in areas affected by terrorism requires understanding the conditions or situations in which each person is building their life path. In this context, it is important to question to what extent the new forms of action of insurgent groups can bring new dimensions to the way populations view their economic and social opportunities.

2025/12/3