Cabo Delgado: Between Armed Violence and the Natural Resource Trap

Alípio Freeman"

Since October 2017, Mozambique has been witnessing the unfolding of an armed conflict that has particularly affected the northern province of Cabo Delgado. What began as a series of seemingly disorganized attacks on police stations and villages has turned into a prolonged, violent and highly destructive insurgency led by an armed group known locally as “Al-Shabab” (not directly related to the Somali group of the same name). This group, later associated with the Islamic State in Central Africa (ISCAP), has imposed a new reality of terror on vulnerable communities, plunging the region into one of the greatest humanitarian disasters in Mozambique’s recent history.

Since the beginning of the insurgency, more than 5,000 people have lost their lives as a direct result of armed clashes, massacres, ambushes and the destruction of entire villages. According to UN figures, around 1 million people have been internally displaced, forced to flee their homes to escape the violence, leaving behind their crops, families and cultural identities. The humanitarian crisis that has ensued is aggravated by the fragility of public institutions, the lack of basic social services and a widespread feeling of abandonment by the State.

The causes of the insurgency cannot be understood solely in light of religious fundamentalism. In fact, Cabo Delgado is a province marked by deep and historic inequalities. Despite being one of the country’s richest natural resource regions, with world-class natural gas discoveries, as well as the exploitation of rubies, graphite and precious timber, local populations continue to live in conditions of extreme poverty, without access to quality education, adequate health care or real economic opportunities. This glaring contradiction between potential wealth and daily misery fuels resentment and provides fertile ground for the insurgents to recruit young people.

In this sense, the insurgency can also be read as a form of violent, albeit tragic, social protest against the systematic exclusion imposed by a development model that favors political and economic elites and ignores the aspirations of local communities. Radical Islamist rhetoric often serves as an instrumental narrative that channels frustrations accumulated in areas historically neglected by the Mozambican state. It is not only a religious war, but also a war against marginalization and for survival.

Another factor that intensifies the complexity of the conflict is the so-called “resource curse,” a concept widely explored by economist Paul Collier in his work “The Bottom Billion.” According to Collier, poor countries with large reserves of natural resources are more prone to internal conflicts, precisely because the resources become the target of disputes between armed groups, corrupt elites, and foreign interests. Mozambique seems to fit this pattern perfectly. The exploration of natural gas in Cabo Delgado, led by multinationals such as Total Energies, has generated expectations of billion-dollar profits, but has also led to the forced displacement of entire communities and the worsening of local social tensions.

In this context, the insurgency ends up being fueled by a set of interconnected factors: social exclusion, unfulfilled economic promises, the absence of the State and a governing elite that seems more concerned with protecting the interests of foreign investors than with ensuring the well-being of its own citizens.

The Mozambican government’s response to the conflict has also been criticized. Instead of pursuing a political and social solution to the problem, the government opted for a military strategy, which included hiring foreign forces. Among these, Rwandan troops stand out, whose presence has raised questions about national sovereignty, the lack of transparency in the agreements signed and the true motivation behind their intervention. Although these forces have managed to recapture some strategic areas, lasting peace is still far from being achieved.

For many, the Rwandan presence is nothing more than a model of “hired security,” a kind of mercenary. The Mozambican government has not provided detailed public accounts of the terms of this partnership, nor is its true political and economic cost known. Reliance on foreign forces not only weakens the capacity of the Mozambican Defense and Security Forces, but it can also fuel a sense of occupation among the local population, making reconciliation and trust-building even more difficult.

The prolongation of the conflict benefits certain sectors. For some, war has become a source of profit and power. From private security companies, to political actors who capitalize on anti-terrorism rhetoric, to smuggling and trafficking networks operating under the cover of instability, there is an entire ecosystem that benefits from the continuation of hostilities. In this web of interests, peace is, paradoxically, a threat.

It is therefore urgent to rethink the strategy for resolving the conflict in Cabo Delgado. Lasting peace will not be achieved with weapons alone. A comprehensive plan is needed that includes social reconciliation, justice for victims, reintegration of displaced people, combating poverty, youth inclusion and a profound review of the way natural resources are managed. It is imperative to ensure that local communities actively participate in decisions about their territory and benefit equitably from the exploitation of resources.

It is also essential to ensure that all stakeholders involved, both internally and externally, are held accountable. Transparency in the management of agreements with multinational companies, the presence of foreign troops and the allocation of reconstruction funds is an essential condition for restoring trust in the State.

The conflict in Cabo Delgado is ultimately a mirror that reflects the limits of Mozambique’s current development model. A model that prioritizes capital over people, that negotiates with the outside world while turning its back on its own communities. Breaking out of this trap requires political courage, a willingness to break with predatory practices and a commitment to a future where the country’s wealth is not a curse, but an opportunity for all.

2025/12/3