Thucydides' Trap and the Cronos Complex at the Center of the Global Stage

Alberto Mudjadju"

Thucydides' Trap is a concept developed by the historian Thucydides in the context of the Peloponnesian War, referring to the historical tendency where, when an emerging power challenges an established power, the result is often war. Thucydides argued that the main cause of the war was the growth of Athenian power and the fear this inspired in Sparta. When an emerging power challenges an established power, both sides may feel threatened and adopt defensive measures that, in fact, increase tensions and the likelihood of war. The Cronus complex is a psychological concept referring to the tendency of parents or authority figures to feel threatened to their own identity or power due to the growth and development of their children or subordinates. An individual with a Cronus complex fears being surpassed or replaced by someone younger and more talented.

These two analogies serve as a basis for describing the divergences between NATO and the rise of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), which reflect a significant threat to the global power dynamics. While NATO, led by the US, represents a more traditional, Western-centric world order, the BRICS symbolize a new multipolar order, with emerging economies challenging Western hegemony. The BRICS question the leadership of the US and NATO in global affairs, seeking a more equitable distribution of power and influence. Similarly, economic interests are questioned by the BRICS, as their expansion aims to promote economic development and cooperation among member countries, reducing dependence on the US dollar and Western financial institutions. This rise of the BRICS leads to geopolitical conflicts, as Russia, being a member of the BRICS, is involved in conflicts with Ukraine, which has led to economic sanctions from the West, increasing tensions between the two blocs. Similarly, the rise of China as an economic and military power is seen as a threat by the US, which seeks to maintain its global influence.

The rise of the BRICS as a consequence of the Thucydides Trap or Cronos complex may have several global implications, starting with multipolarity, a world order with multiple centers of power and influence reducing the dominance of the US and NATO; a challenge to global cooperation, since the divergences between the BRICS and NATO may hinder international cooperation on global issues such as climate change, cybersecurity and nuclear non-proliferation, as well as lead to a reorganization of global alliances, with countries seeking more advantageous and diversified partnerships. The relationship between the BRICS and NATO is complex and influenced by several factors, including economic interests, global security and geopolitical rivalries; the trend is that the dynamics will continue to evolve, shaping the global scenario in the coming years, hence justifying to some extent the war between Russia and Ukraine (partially within NATO), and some say that after Iran, now Russia, the next in the "food chain" will be China, in order to curb the growth of the BRICS and maintain the hegemony of the other bloc.

2025/12/3