The breakdown of the social contract in Cabo Delgado

Alberto Mudjadju"

When the state loses the trust of its citizens, it opens the door to contests over authority.

The security crisis in Cabo Delgado, in northern Mozambique, cannot be analyzed solely through a military lens. Since the beginning of the insurgency in 2017, the discussion has frequently focused on armed attacks, the operational capacity of the Defense and Security Forces, the recovery of territories, and the presence of foreign forces. While these elements are fundamental, there is a deeper dimension that deserves attention: the relationship between the State and its citizens. It is in this context that the idea of ​​a breakdown in the social contract gains relevance. The social contract, in the classical perspective of thinkers such as Thomas Hobbes, John Locke, and Jean-Jacques Rousseau, represents, in a simplified way, the understanding according to which individuals agree to submit to the authority of the State in exchange for protection, security, justice, rights, and minimum conditions for a dignified life. The State, in turn, needs to demonstrate the capacity and legitimacy to fulfill these responsibilities. When this relationship ceases to function, a crisis of trust arises. And when trust disappears, the authority of the State begins to be questioned. It is precisely here that Cabo Delgado presents a worrying reality.

The State cannot be present only during wartime; one of the greatest challenges for any State is ensuring its presence is felt by the population not only through security forces, but also through schools, hospitals, courts, public administration, roads, economic opportunities, and mechanisms for citizen participation. Security is a fundamental obligation of the State, but it is not the only one. A population that lives permanently confronted with poverty, unemployment, exclusion, lack of opportunities, and difficulties in accessing public services may develop the perception that the State is distant from its problems. When this happens over long periods, the relationship of trust begins to deteriorate. In Cabo Delgado, this issue becomes even more sensitive due to the existence of enormous natural resources, including natural gas and rubies. The contradiction between the wealth existing in the territory and the difficulties faced by a significant part of the population fuels a legitimate question: who effectively benefits from Cabo Delgado's resources? This question does not mean asserting that poverty or the existence of natural resources alone explain the insurgency. The problem is more complex. However, perceived inequalities, social exclusion, youth unemployment, resource-related conflicts, and institutional weaknesses can create an environment in which discourses of revolt find greater receptivity. When the population ceases to trust. No state can maintain solid authority solely through force. Force can recover a military position, expel an armed group from a certain area, or temporarily prevent an attack. However, political and social authority requires something deeper: legitimacy. Legitimacy arises when citizens recognize the state as an institution that, despite its limitations, works in defense of the collective interest. When a community believes that public institutions are incapable of protecting it, listening to it, or responding to its needs, a dangerous space opens up. It is in this space that different actors can try to exert influence. The insurgency in Cabo Delgado must, therefore, also be understood as a dispute over authority. The armed group does not only seek to carry out attacks. It seeks to exploit weaknesses, provoke fear, challenge the presence of the state and, in certain contexts, present itself as an alternative to the existing authority. Herein lies one of the great lessons of conflict: territory is not controlled merely by the presence of soldiers; it is controlled by the effective presence of the State and the trust of the population. A community can be physically under the control of state forces and yet remain distant from the State if it lacks access to justice, education, health, employment, and participation.

The military aspect is indispensable, but not sufficient. It would be a mistake to conclude that a military response is unnecessary. On the contrary. No state can allow armed groups to control territories, attack citizens, and challenge national sovereignty. The Mozambican Armed Forces and other security forces have a fundamental constitutional mission in defending sovereignty and territorial integrity. However, there is an important difference between recovering territory and consolidating authority. Recovering a village is a security operation. Ensuring that this village has a school, a health unit, a functional public administration, justice, roads, markets, employment, and permanent security is a state-building operation. The first can be accomplished in days or weeks. The second requires years. This is why any stabilization strategy for Cabo Delgado that is limited to the military dimension risks producing only temporary results. If the conditions that fuel distrust persist, the problem may reappear in other forms.

Young people are one of the key players. The issue of youth deserves special attention. A society with a young population needs to transform youth into a force for development. When young people encounter only unemployment, exclusion, lack of prospects, and absence of opportunities, they become more vulnerable to different forms of political, criminal, or extremist mobilization. This is not about considering young people as a threat. On the contrary: the greatest threat is leaving an entire generation without prospects. A young person who believes in their future has far more reason to defend peace and institutions. A young person who feels they have no place in society can become vulnerable to discourses that promise money, identity, recognition, or revenge. Therefore, combating insurgency also means combating the conditions that allow recruitment and radicalization. Education, vocational training, employment, entrepreneurship, community participation, and political inclusion should not be seen merely as social policies. In conflict contexts, they are also instruments of national security.

Rebuilding the social contract. If there has been a breakdown of the social contract in certain communities in Cabo Delgado, the response cannot simply be to demand that the population regain trust in the State. Trust cannot be decreed. It is built. And it is built through concrete results. Citizens need to feel that the State is present when there is peace, not just when there is war. They need to find the State in hospitals, schools, courts, public administration, the market, and job opportunities. It is also necessary to strengthen the relationship between the defense and security forces and the communities. A population that cooperates with the security forces constitutes an important source of information and prevention. But cooperation depends on trust. Community security must therefore be built with the communities, not just for the communities. This requires dialogue, respect for human rights, reporting mechanisms, accountability for abuses, and participation of community leaders. Cabo Delgado and the question of sovereignty. There is also a strategic dimension that cannot be ignored. When the State ceases to fully exercise its authority over certain areas, other actors can occupy that space. As the saying goes, those who do not control their territory end up, in some way, sharing power with those who do. This statement takes on enormous significance in Cabo Delgado. Sovereignty cannot be understood merely as a flag, a border, or the presence of a military unit. Sovereignty means the effective capacity to govern, protect, and serve citizens within the national territory. Therefore, recovering sovereignty in Cabo Delgado means simultaneously defeating the armed threat and rebuilding the relationship between the State and society.

2025/12/3