Does History Repeat Itself or Not?

Alberto Mudjadju"

The question of whether history is linear or circular is a long-standing and complex debate that has been discussed by philosophers, historians, and social theorists. Those who defend the linearity of history argue that it is a progressive and irreversible process, where past events causally lead to present and future events. They argue that the fact that history is linear is due to the idea that humanity is in constant progress, and that each event is a necessary stage in the development of civilization. For example, Hegel's theory of progress, Marx's idea of ​​evolution, and Max Weber's notion of modernization are theories that defend linear history. In contrast, we have those who defend the idea of ​​a circular or cyclical history, arguing that history is a cycle of events that repeat themselves over time, where similar patterns and themes occur in different contexts. To justify this idea, circular history is based on the idea that humanity is subject to natural patterns and cycles, and that past events can repeat themselves in the future. For this, it draws on examples such as Toynbee's theory of historical cycles, Nietzsche's idea of ​​eternal return, and Spengler's notion of cycles of civilization. The idea of ​​linear history is criticized for being overly simplistic and ignoring the complexity and contingency of historical events, as is circular history, which is seen as overly deterministic and ignores the human capacity to learn and change over time.

We explored these two historical ideas to try to understand what's happening around the world today. How the world appears divided into blocs, as it was during World War II, can we envision the future? Given how divided it is today, aren't we facing a likely third World War? Here are the comparative facts: during World War II, there were two blocs: one formed by Germany, Italy, and Japan (the Axis Bloc) and the United Kingdom, France, the Soviet Union, and the United States (the Allies). Today, we have NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) alliances, a military alliance composed of countries in North America and Europe, including the United States; and BRICS, an organization composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, which seeks to promote economic and political cooperation between these countries. Just as in World War II, there are rivalries between today's great powers competing for global economic and political influence. Global security remains a major concern, with issues such as terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and cybersecurity being debated in major forums.

Another important factor in understanding whether history is linear or cyclical is the fact that some military tensions existed before World War II, and we can see some of them today. In 1935-1936, Italy's invasion of Ethiopia was one of the first acts of aggression that led to World War II; the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939) took place in Spain and had international implications, with the participation of powers such as Germany and Italy; Japan's invasion of China in 1937, an act of aggression that led to Japanese expansion in Asia; and Germany's annexation of Austria in 1938, an act of aggression that led to German expansion in Europe. Similar events can be seen today, such as the War in Ukraine, a conflict involving Ukraine and Russia with international implications; the War in Syria, a conflict involving Syria, Russia, Turkey, and other regional actors; and the Israel-Palestine conflict, a long-standing conflict involving other regional and non-regional actors with their own interests. War in Yemen: A conflict involving Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and other regional actors. Aggression and expansion, similar to what happened during World War II, have been occurring today, such as in Ukraine and Taiwan by China. Another equally important sign, drawing an analogy with World War II, is the international implications. The involvement of global powers in conflicts ultimately has global repercussions, including ethnic and religious conflicts, which have become the majority today, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict and the war in Syria. Given the facts, does history repeat itself (cyclically or linearly)?

2025/12/3