Cold War 2.0

Alberto Mudjadju"

The eternal return of the identical, an idea developed by Friedrich Nietzsche, states that the universe and all events within it will repeat themselves infinitely, in exactly the same way, in an eternal cycle of birth, death, and rebirth. With recent world events, are we witnessing this phenomenon? A Cold War on a higher level (a multipolar world, not bipolar as before)? The Cold War was an ideological and geopolitical conflict between the USA and the USSR that did not involve any direct military conflict, but rather a series of proxy conflicts (where the two powers did not confront each other directly, but rather through other countries, for example, here in Mozambique between Frelimo and Renamo in the famous 16-year war, which is why some claim that in the West the war was cold, but here it was hot because there were shootings), espionage, and propaganda. The world was divided into two blocs, the Western (USA) and the Eastern (USSR), where the dispute was between Capitalism and Communism, which competed for influence and allies throughout the world, and the nuclear and space races were important aspects. In the 21st century, the US has emerged with a complex and multifaceted strategy, divided into three parts: Oil, where it seeks to protect its interests in relation to Middle Eastern and Latin American oil, as well as reduce its dependence on Middle Eastern oil by exploring alternative sources such as shale and natural gas. Trade Routes, guaranteeing freedom of navigation and trade, protecting maritime routes and US interests, as well as negotiating bilateral and multilateral agreements to promote its interests and investing in infrastructure such as ports and canals for greater competitiveness. Military Technology, maintaining its superiority by investing in advanced technologies, developing new capabilities, and strengthening international cooperation in security and defense. These plans reflect the US strategy to maintain its position of global leadership in the 21st century. To consolidate its plans for the century, the US relies on the "Monroe Doctrine" and the "America First" policy, which are extremely important in its foreign policy, as the Latin American region is considered strategic for the US, and political and economic influence in the area is a recurring theme. The Monroe Doctrine establishes Latin America as a zone of US influence, and the US reserves the right to intervene in the region to protect its interests, while the "America First" policy prioritizes US national interests above all else and seeks to reaffirm its influence in the region, especially in relation to rival powers, and can react if it feels threatened or approaches by a power. Therefore, some say that the action in Caracas was not for oil (as the main factor, because it is also necessary), but rather to mark a position against the powers that are trying to get closer, an action similar to what happened during the Cold War, but this time not only for Russia, which represented the USSR, but also for China (the BRICS), a case of saying that we are in a "Cold War 2.0". Another important piece of data to help understand that oil was not the main cause is the fact that the USA is currently the world's largest oil producer, with a production of 14.8 million barrels per day, followed by Saudi Arabia with 12.4 million barrels per day and Russia closing the podium with 11.2 million. Venezuela is not even in the top 10, as it produces around 900,000 barrels per day. This shows that having resources is not synonymous with wealth, as there is a need for good investment to obtain the desired return. We also have the case of Nigeria, which is one of the largest oil producers in Africa, but has a diversified economy and faces development challenges, or we can follow the example of Norway, which has significant oil reserves but invested in a sovereign wealth fund to ensure economic stability and diversification. "Cold War 2.0" because the US, in addition to having Russia as its main enemy, is implementing a strategy of blockade against China on several fronts (after Iran and Russia, the next in the food chain would be China) such as: trade war, the US imposes high tariffs on Chinese products, such as 124% on some items, while China responds with up to 125% on American imports; Technological restrictions, the US limits the export of microchips and other critical technologies to China, aiming to reduce Chinese dependence, in turn China restricts the supply of silver to the US, which it uses for the production of military material because China, after Peru, is the country with the most silver deposits; Support for Taiwan, the US maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity in relation to Taiwan, militarily supporting the island without formally recognizing its independence, in response China conducts military exercises around Taiwan, including simulations of blockades and attacks. These tensions reflect a broader rivalry between the US and China, with global implications for the economy, security, and geopolitics, not to mention the rivalry the US has with Iran and Russia.

2025/12/3