SYRIA, A NEW BASTION OF EXTREMISM? MOZAMBIQUE, ON THE VERGE OF CIVIL WAR?

Afonso Almeida Brandão"

THE The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which marked the end of a brutal cycle in Syria, is not the end of suffering, but possibly the beginning of an even darker chapter. Syria, for years marked by repression, violence and the use of chemical weapons against its own people, is now facing an uncertain future. What could initially be seen as a victory for democracy and freedom is being eclipsed by an even more dangerous rise of jihadist forces, who are taking power, led by Ahmed Al Sharaa, imposing a new reality on the country. This new chapter seems to reflect geopolitical trends seen in other Middle Eastern contexts, such as Afghanistan and Libya, where the fall of dictatorships has resulted not in peace but in a power vacuum filled by extremists. The fact that victory over Assad could mean the rise of even more radical forces, who now position themselves as the new rulers, raises uncomfortable questions about the consequences of a regime that is more tolerated by the West than is often acknowledged.

New Taliban or a Radical Revolution?

Ahmed Al Sharaa, the leader of a jihadist movement now gaining influence in Syria, is a figure who represents a dramatic shift. Like the Taliban in Afghanistan, Al Sharaa aims to establish a radical Islamic regime, with a strong rejection of any Western influence. The jihadist movement he leads is ideologically more aligned with the interests of Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups. The Syrian population’s support for this movement may be due to the desperation of those who lived under Assad’s regime for years, but his radical and repressive policies, especially towards women and human rights, threaten to transform Syria into a new bastion of extremism. The rise of Al Sharaa brings to the fore a crucial debate: what is the West really supporting? If Assad was a brutal dictatorship, does the rise of jihadist groups that espouse an equally, if not more, oppressive ideology represent a genuine victory?

The Collapse of Gaddafi And the post-dictatorial Chaos

What happened in Libya after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi is a clear lesson in the dangers of not having a post-conflict strategy. When Gaddafi was ousted in 2011, Libya entered a period of profound instability. The lack of an effective central government allowed rival militias and extremist groups, such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, to take control of several regions of the country. This situation illustrates how the removal of a dictator cannot be seen as a victory unless it is followed by a clear process of reconciliation and state-building. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which marked the end of a brutal cycle in Syria, is not the end of suffering, but possibly the beginning of an even darker chapter. Syria, for years marked by repression, violence and the use of chemical weapons against its own people, now faces an uncertain future. What could initially be seen as a victory for democracy and freedom is being overshadowed by an even more dangerous rise of jihadist forces, who are taking power, led by Ahmed Al Sharaa, imposing a new reality on the country. This new chapter seems to reflect geopolitical trends seen elsewhere in the Middle East, such as Afghanistan and Libya, where the fall of dictatorships has resulted not in peace but in a power vacuum filled by extremists. The fact that victory over Assad could mean the rise of even more radical forces, now positioning themselves as the new rulers, raises uncomfortable questions about the consequences of a regime that is more tolerated by the West than is often acknowledged. Ahmed Al Sharaa, the leader of a jihadist movement now gaining influence in Syria, is a figure who represents a dramatic shift. Like the Taliban in Afghanistan, Al Sharaa aims to establish a radical Islamic regime, with a strong rejection of any Western influence. The jihadist movement he leads is ideologically more aligned with the interests of Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups. The Syrian population’s support for this movement may be due to the desperation of those who lived under Assad’s regime for years, but his radical and repressive policies, especially towards women and human rights, threaten to transform Syria into a new bastion of extremism. The rise of Al Sharaa brings to the fore a crucial debate: what is the West really supporting? If Assad was a brutal dictatorship, does the rise of jihadist groups that espouse an equally, if not more, oppressive ideology represent a genuine victory? What happened in Libya after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi is a clear lesson in the dangers of not having a post-conflict strategy. When Gaddafi was ousted in 2011, Libya entered a period of profound instability. The lack of an effective central government allowed rival militias and extremist groups, such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, to take control of several regions of the country. This situation illustrates how the removal of a dictator cannot be seen as a victory unless it is followed by a clear process of reconciliation and state-building. Let us wait and see how events unfold, which in our view leave much to be desired...

And how does it look? Mozambique...?!

The same is happening with Mozambique and with the LACK OF COURAGE in the definitive and clarifying decision by the Constitutional Council that “neither binds nor unbinds”. Meanwhile, the Country has become a real Hell and the other Political Parties and their leaders — starting with the “machine guns” of FRELIMO — are the ones who are truly responsible for this entire dramatic situation, as a result of 50 years of (mis)governance and successive thefts from the Public Treasury, relegating the Population to extreme poverty and lack of prospects. And the result is clear to see... and we do not know how all this will end. We hope it will not be in a Civil War.

And the truth — NO MATTER WHO IT HURT — is that Venâncio Mondlane, from the PODEMOS Party, was/is the absolute Winner of the October 2024 Presidential Elections, as it has been proven that the Ballot Boxes were rigged and that the Voting Ballots were falsified by FRELIMO — which has not yet understood that its time of “perch” has come to an end... and that the majority of its Members responsible for the (mis)Government of almost five decades of robberies, embezzlement, drug trafficking and influence, among their peers and systematic cronyism, did nothing but SINK the Country into the Misery in which it finds itself, as it “hit rock bottom” for never having had the guidance and direction it should have had during the three terms of office of the Presidents of the Republic Joaquim Chissano, Armando Guebuza and Filipe Nyuse, who were at the forefront of the Destiny of Mozambique. For all of this, they should all be held accountable and some arrested (together with their Ministers and Vice-Ministers), from January 2025...

2025/12/3