Grain by grain...

Afonso Almeida Brandão"

He Seven years ago, the CHEGA Party was "a footnote" in the Legislative Elections: 1.29%. One deputy. A phenomenon treated as a passing eccentricity. Since then, the curve is anything but residual. 7.18% in 2022. 18.07% in 2024. 22.76% in 2025. In the Presidential Elections, André Ventura went from 11.90% in 2021 to 23.52% in the first round of 2026 and 33.18% in the second. Those who insist on interpreting these numbers as "a temporary hiccup" are choosing shortsightedness. Not that one can simply transpose percentages from legislative elections to presidential elections, or vice versa. The nature of the elections is different, the VOTE is more personalized, and the logic of second rounds distorts alignments. But, with Ventura, there is an additional factor—he is the central asset. He is the one who mobilizes. He is the one who polarizes. He is the one who transforms a political party into an extension of his own narrative. It may seem excessive — and it is, from an institutional point of view — but it is the current political reality, so to speak. André Ventura is not "the leader of the right" in the classical sense of the term. He doesn't dominate the political space, he doesn't build structural majorities, he doesn't govern. However, he is currently its most dynamic pole, the one that shows continued growth and the ability to transform the indignation that is circulating into effective votes. Election after election, he consolidates a loyal base and expands the periphery available to try him out. With each cycle, more voters lose their fear of choosing him — not always due to ideological adherence, often due to saturation with what exists. The approximately 400,000 additional votes in the second round of the Presidential election do not automatically translate to the Legislative elections. It would be intellectually dishonest to claim otherwise. But they reveal something politically relevant: there is an electoral window that no longer sees it as forbidden. There are voters there who broke through a barrier. Who, even aware of the weaknesses, chose to test this hypothesis. A protest vote, yes. An instrumental vote, perhaps. A vote "in vain," for some. But they are always real votes—and it is this materiality that counts in a representative democracy. For years, the media and traditional parties preferred caricature to diagnosis—indeed, they sought to feed on the "monster" they helped create. They underestimated André Ventura's political resilience in adverse moments—and announced imminent collapses that never came, treating each controversy as the beginning of the end. The reality was different. None of this implies absolving André Ventura of his simplifications, ambiguities, or excesses. On the contrary. It implies recognizing that the phenomenon is not episodic. It is anchored in an electorate that feels exhausted, drained, disregarded. And that votes, knowing what that vote symbolizes, because it wants to signal a break. Because it wants to disrupt. Because it wants to be heard. And because it wants, above all, to defeat the SYSTEM that has lasted for 50 years and that has always been "in the hands" of the PS and PSD. Ignoring this reality doesn't solve anything. Ridiculing it doesn't convert. Moralizing doesn't convince. If there is a lesson in these numbers, it is unequivocal—something has structurally changed in Portugal. As an example, we can say that France offers an uncomfortable mirror of what happens when the political center closes in on itself and allows dissent to grow on the margins until the margins become the center. We are not condemned to replicate this path. But neither are we immune. Having arrived here, we could compare it to the FRELIMO Party, which has been in the same political situation since 1975 and which "neither ties nor unties," which is embarrassing and unacceptable, aggravated by the fact that it has been "elected" successively over five decades with the usual trickery and fraudulent acts "at the ballot box," as most of the Mozambican people are tired of knowing. Democracy is not defended with moral superiority, trickery, and "farces"; it is defended by solving people's lives, which has NEVER happened with FRELIMO in power. The best way to care for the democratic regime is to neutralize discontent. Where there is efficiency and proximity, no one takes advantage. Where there are persistent flaws, someone capitalizes. And, seemingly insignificant, grain by grain, the hen fills its crop... Let's face it, this is what has always happened in Mozambique, and we are witnessing the verification of a pseudo-reality that has allowed FRELIMO to remain in charge of Mozambique's destiny and to (mis)govern the country for so many years. However, as is well known, a large part of the population continues to live below the poverty line. For how long, nobody knows. Let's see what will happen in 2029 when the time comes for new elections, because Mozambicans are already getting fed up and tired of suffering at all levels... But the worst thing is the "emptiness" of Mozambican citizens' wallets, already precarious, which affects up to 80% of the active population, and the word metical is a mirage with no end in sight, preventing everyone from surviving day to day, hoping to achieve the longed-for future with a minimum of dignity and merit that is long overdue

2025/12/3